According to the anticipated 2025–2026 city budget, the city’s growth is at historically low levels since 2020, according to a briefing on local and regional growth trends given by city demographer Lila Valencia to the Airport Advisory Commission on July 9.
According to Valencia, Austin expanded at a pace of 4% each year between 2010 and 2020. The growth rate has been closer to 1% every year since 2020. According to Valencia, migration, births, and deaths can all affect a population.
According to Valencia, when we examine these aspects of change, we see significant variations in migration but essentially constancy in natural change, or births less deaths.
International and domestic migration are the two categories of migration, according to Valencia. People who are migrating within the Austin area from other parts of Texas or from other states are considered domestic migrants.
According to Valencia, the number of domestic migrants in the city reached a peak of 48,000 in 2020. That number dropped to 14,000 in 2024.
Economic problems are frequently linked to domestic migration, and we’ve observed that job growth in the Austin region has also slowed, Valencia added. We observe a similar pattern in domestic migration when those job numbers begin to decline.
According to Valencia, during the past few years, migration abroad has surpassed movement within the country. In 2024, there were approximately 28,000 foreign migrants, up from 3,500 in 2021.
According to the planned budget, Austin’s population may decline soon and regional development may stall further if domestic migration keeps down and federal immigration limitations reduce the quantity of overseas migration.
Valencia stated, “I think it’s important to keep in mind that we didn’t exactly keep up with the pace of population growth in the last few decades when we start to take this new scenario where we might experience population decline and even (slowing) growth.”
According to Valencia, this halt offers a chance to establish the framework for community-needed services and initiatives, like housing stock, water supply, and infrastructure.
“We needed a slowdown in the city,” said Heather Way, head of the Housing Policy Clinic and clinical professor at Texas Law. Our housing stock just could not keep up with the significant development that has occurred over the last 20 years.
Growth does not necessarily have to be the objective, according to Luis Urrieta, a professor of cultural studies in education.
According to Urrieta, growth always seems to be the aim. The well-being of individuals, safe and healthy communities, affordability, and coexistence should all be taken into consideration.
