There is hope that the stagnation of the current government will be overcome with the help of a new coalition formed by Jauna vietība (SP), the Union of Greens and Peasants (ZZS) and Progressivie, although no one can give such a guarantee, this is such an opinion to LETA was expressed by a political scientist Juris Rosenwalds.
Asked to look back at the formation of the government and answer the question why the five-party coalition failed, the expert noted that it was clear from the beginning that it could be a four-party coalition, since the National Union (NU) always needs someone to who can fight. If in previous convocations it was “Consent”, then this time – “Progressives”.
Rozenvalds noted that in the end, the main dispute unfolded between the “Single List” (AC) and the SP about what a four-party coalition should be. The AU wanted to keep the current tandem with the NS, while the SP preferred to stay with Progressive, knowing that if the NA and NS tandem continues, nothing will change radically, especially since the SP has several important issues, the solution of which is completely blocked from N .A.
The politician explained that these are issues related to the human rights bloc, recruitment of labor force and the Green Deal. In his opinion, these issues are now relevant for the joint venture. This may be due to the fact that the SP is a “party of pro-European bureaucrats”, which has a lot of support in public administration. For the joint venture, it is important how all this looks in the European context.
“In my opinion, the SP politicians cannot but worry about our image outside the country, about how what is happening in the country looks from the outside. Therefore, the choice in favor of the “progressives” is natural. Since neither AS nor the National Assembly wanted to enter the government together with ” Progressives,” then only the ZZS will remain,” Rosenwald said.
In his opinion, Oleg Burova, leader of the Honor to Serve Riga party, who does not belong to the Saeima faction, and who has demonstrated his separation from the Latvia First Party, may also enter the “small coalition” with 52 votes. party and does not utter “anti-government” rhetoric.
The political scientist acknowledged that the “small coalition” has many shortcomings, so issues related to discipline and commission control will be important. He noted that the SP and the candidate for prime minister Evikas Silina (SP) somewhat irritated the SP with their activities, and it was not in vain that she stated that she was entrusted with the powers to form the government, and not the SP. SP.
“It is possible that MPs from other parties will be able to support this coalition, although this is also difficult to predict. The fact that the representatives of the AU are beating their chests and talking about their unity, which is greater than ever before, may mean that the AU “These are serious discussions. However, the AU was created in order to come to power. Going into opposition could cause some reflection among the representatives of the AU,” Rosenwald said.
When asked if a coalition of 52 votes is viable, the political scientist stressed that there is no radical difference between 52, 53 or 54 votes. Such a coalition can work. Rosenwald asked a rhetorical counter-question, suggesting that the existing coalition, which has 54 votes, is more viable. The main problem of the existing coalition was that politicians could not agree within the country.
As for how joining the opposition will affect the NA and the NA, the political scientist explained that both political forces should be assessed differently. He noted that the National Assembly has its own main electorate, which will vote for the National Assembly in almost any situation, because this electorate has no other alternative. In elections to the National Assembly there will always be about 8% of the votes. According to Rosenwald, joining the opposition to the party does not mean anything tragic, so the National Assembly also takes it relatively calmly.
“Going into the opposition would be useful not only for the party, but also for Latvian politics, because the National Assembly has been clearly acting as a slowing down factor lately. On the other hand, the AU is in a completely different situation. This is, first of all, “This is due to the fact that political power is heterogeneous. The AU is made up of very different entities. Secondly, they actually have the same electorate as the ZZS,” the political scientist said.
According to Rosenwald, all this can create internal contradictions in the AU, especially since political abilities lack a leader, since the founder of the AU, Uldis Pilens, is not visible. On the other hand, if we talk about the policy of AS Edvardas Smiltenas (AS), then in previous convocations the Speaker of the Seimas did not show such activity in forming a coalition. The task of the Speaker of the Seimas is to speak on behalf of the Seimas, and not on behalf of one political force.
“This is of course the choice of the AU, but in my opinion it indicates that the AU does not have a clear leader to follow. This also manifests itself as a problem of political power, which can perhaps manifest itself in disagreements. admitted that they also have only assumptions,” the political scientist said.
Regarding which political forces of the new coalition will be winners and which losers, according to Rosenwald, there are various versions and conspiracy theories, for example, that the SP wants to strangle “progressives” in its arms. The political scientist noted that in the end the joint venture will be the winner. Political power is needed to advance agenda items such as ratification of the Istanbul Convention. The Progressives will also have a lot of advantages, because this political force will have its say. Also, the ZZS will have the opportunity to show that the party is no worse than the AU in managing certain industries.
The SP, ZZS and Progresivier will continue to work on forming the next government on Monday, Silina, who was nominated for the post of prime minister, said at a press conference today along with other SP politicians. This statement came after AS announced its decision not to enter the government of the joint venture, ZZS and Progressivo.
Silina added that “the doors are still open to a certain extent” for those parties that are willing to put aside their ideological positions and agree on what to do. However, now there is no time for “empty talk and long tango dances” that have been observed so far during the formation of the coalition, the candidate for prime ministers emphasized.
Silina stressed that there are parties – that is, SP, ZZS and Progresivos – that want to work and take responsibility for solving problems that harm society. The creators of the future government are ready to work on preventing security threats, as well as solving such social problems as raising the tariffs of the Distribution Networks and interest rates on mortgage loans.
Commenting on the AU’s refusal to work in the government, the candidate for premier stressed that this is “a historically unique situation in Latvian politics, since even some politicians from the Single List do not really understand why they decided to do so.”
As Anna Udre, a spokeswoman for the joint venture, told LETA, Siliņa emphasizes that the AO showed “special disposition” in the negotiation process, repeatedly listening to the leaders of the AO and citing several informal consultations.
“I spent a lot of time literally persuading AU politicians to come to the government and work,” Xilina said, noting that, unfortunately, “only resentment” came from the AU leaders, which, obviously, some colleagues could not overcome.
“Unfortunately, I cannot afford to continue to wait now. The security situation on the borders of our country does not allow us to enter into discussions about ideological contradictions. Now is not the right time,” the SP politician emphasized.
“This time there is a choice between work and non-work. The door was open to everyone and is still open, but the delay practiced by individual parties is no longer acceptable,” said Silina, who was nominated for the post of prime minister.
“I want to emphasize that this is not only a party, but also an individual choice of each politician – to work or not to work,” the politician said.
As reported, the AU justifies its decision not to enter the future government of these three parties on the grounds that “it will not support an unstable government that weakens national security and international reputation under the decisive influence of Lemberg.”