(CNN) — An above normal Atlantic hurricane season is still expected, according to the latest forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) released this Thursday by the morning.
Although this season has been less active so far compared to the last two, both NOAA and CSU expect this year to become the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season.
The latest NOAA projections call for a 60% chance of an above normal season. Their forecasts expect between 14 and 20 named storms (winds of 63 km/h or more), which is a slight decrease from the initial forecast of 14 to 21 published in May. This forecast includes the three named storms that have already formed this season: Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.
Of those predicted named storms, they believe that 6-10 will be hurricanes (winds of 119 km/h or greater) and 3-5 will be major hurricanes (winds of 178 km/h or greater).
NOAA’s previous outlook, released in May, showed a 65% chance of an above-normal season, with 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major ones.
“Although we are now two months into the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, about 90% of all hurricanes and 95% of major Atlantic hurricanes occur after August 1, on average,” said Phil Klotzbach. , a research scientist at CSU.
For context, a normal Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The update from the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team forecasts 18 named storms this season, one less than its original April forecast but four more than the annual average.
Of the 18 total storms—which also include the three names already used this season—eight are expected to become hurricanes, and four are expected to become major Category 3s or higher.
“One of the reasons for (the) reduction in the CSU Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast is due to the development of below-normal sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic,” Klotzbach said. “When the subtropical Atlantic is cooler than normal, it can sometimes favor increased shear in the tropical Atlantic.”
According to the CSU report, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall on US shores is now 68%, well above the 52% average of the last century.